"It's tough to make predictions especially about the future."
-- Yogi Berra
One of the most common questions we are asked is…what are our 2012 housing predictions.
Your best way at predicting the future is looking at the present. Specifically, what is happening nationally with housing now.
Lets review the facts:
* Foreclosures made up roughly one-third of all home sales this spring. While that’s a smaller share of sales from the previous quarter, it’s six times the percentage of foreclosures in a healthy housing market.
* foreclosure sales, which include homes purchased after they received a notice of default or that were repossessed by lenders, accounted for 31 percent of the market in the April-June quarter, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. The share of the market would likely have been larger this spring if not for a state and federal investigation into faulty paperwork by banks and servicers. The probe has led many banks to delay foreclosure sales. Once that is complete, foreclosures will likely surge later this year.
* As a percentage of all home purchases, foreclosure sales peaked two years ago at 37.4 percent. In the second quarter, they declined from 36 percent in the January-March 2011 period. Its important to understand that the number of foreclosure sales occurring isn’t due to an overall decrease in distressed property. Fewer foreclosure sales nationally are a direct result of the before mentioned foreclosure fraud, robo-signing issues.
* In all, 265,087 homes in some stage of foreclosure or owned by banks were sold in the second quarter, down 11 percent from the same period a year ago. Sales of all other types of homes also declined, according to RealtyTrac’s figures, which differ from other home-sales estimates.
* Distressed properties, often in need of repair, typically sell at big discounts and weaken prices for neighboring homes.
* A bank-owned home this spring sold for 40 less than the average price of other homes, according to RealtyTrac. That’s worse than the 36 percent in the previous quarter and 34 percent from the same quarter one year ago.
* Sales of homes in the foreclosure process or short sales went for 21 percent less than the average home sold, the firm said. That’s worse than the average of 17% in the first quarter and 14% in the second quarter of 2010.
* The average sales price of a foreclosure property was $164,217, down less than 1% from the January-March quarter and nearly 5% from the April-June quarter in 2010, the firm said.
* In Nevada 65 percent of all home sales were foreclosure sales. This leads all state according to RealtyTrac.
* In Arizona, foreclosure sales represented 57 percent of all home sales for the quarter, up 16 percent from a year ago.
* In California, foreclosure sales accounted for 51 percent of all home sales in the second quarter, virtually unchanged from last year.
* Several other states had foreclosure sales that accounted for at least one third of all home sales in the first quarter: Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Oregon.
Based on those facts….our predictions are no housing market recovery of any significance and and increase in distressed sales in 2012.